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Anthropic’s 2030 AI Economy Scenarios, Explained

The original report, the numbers from the 2030 video, and a practical worksheet for thinking about changing work.

3min read
1prompts to copy
5sections

A larger economy and a larger paycheck are different outcomes. Anthropic’s economic scenario model explores how AI could change output, jobs and income distribution. Use it to compare assumptions, not as a forecast of your salary.

Read the report behind the video

Open Anthropic’s scenario explorer

Read Economic Scenarios for Transformative AI, the full technical report

The September 2026 working paper compares modest, substantial and extreme AI-change scenarios. The authors do not assign probabilities to them. Different assumptions about capabilities, adoption and task automation produce different economic paths.

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